Sunday, May 3, 2020

Potential Impact of Covid-19?

As we sift through all of the data and information out there- I found this to be a helpful and interesting resource.  This was provided by Compass as ready made material- so I can't take credit for it- but I wanted to get it out there- and I wanted to ask- what do you think?  

"What will be the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis?
On April 28th, McKinsey & Company's Global Managing Partner, Kevin Sneader appeared on CNBC to discuss how his firm is advising multiple governors on when and how to reopen their states. In his words, the decision hinges on one question: how do you 
reconcile the saving of lives with the safeguarding of livelihood? 

There's no easy answer. And with 70% of the US workforce unable to do their jobs from home, states need to consider how to make sure there is enough PPE, testing and contact-tracing in place to be confident that once they reopen, they won't have to shut down again.

How This Could Unfold
A recent survey of over 2,000 global executives showed that many expect the recovery to look like one of the scenarios shaded in blue below (A1–A4) which lead to a V- or U-shaped recovery. In each of these, the COVID-19 spread is eventually controlled, and catastrophic structural economic damage is avoided. 

Almost one third of these leaders anticipate a muted world recovery where US GDP could drop 35-40% in Q2 of 2020 and won't return to pre-crisis levels until Q1 of 2023 (A1). A slightly more optimistic outlook was the second most anticipated scenario, reflecting
 virus containment by mid-Q2 of 2020 with an economic rebound following Q2 2020 (A3). [Source: McKinsey]
Which Sectors are being 
Hit the Hardest?
1.    Commercial Aerospace
      May take years to recover from production and              supply chain shortages
2.   Consumer Air & Travel
      Domestic recovery is likely to recover faster than            international travel
3.   Oil & Gas
     Oil price decline driven by short-term demand               impact and OPEC+ decision to increase supply
4.   Insurance Carriers
      Reduced interest rates and investment                          performance impacting returns
5.    Automotive 
      Trade tensions and declining sales amplified by              acute decline in global demand"

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Coming Terroir

As the temperatures grow colder around these parts and we start to look towards the holidays, many of us find our thoughts headed towards home.  That place where it's always warm and cozy and things are just as you like them- maybe its loud and crazy, or quiet and peaceful.  

Over the last couple of months I've had the opportunity to peek into the culture of Israel and the piece that as struck me is how much "home" is apart of their way of life.  Unsurprisingly, my view into the country came through its wines.  As you may know, Israeli wines haven't had the best reputation over the past few decades, often being very sweet.  Today, however, they're working to bring the focus back on terroir.  The wines are becoming a wonderful representative of the beauty and culture of the land, like a greeting card from home.  

I had the opportunity to taste several different offerings from the country and was astounded by their variety and depth of flavor.  The Golan Heights Winery- Yarden Blanc de Blanc vintage 2011 is incredibly refined- utilizing the same practices as the vintners of Champagne the wine has a deep yeast driven nose with flavors of grapefruit and green apple on the palette.  The mousse is extremely fine and the bubbles are as well.  I would be proud to serve this at any celebration.  

The wine that impressed me the most though, out of the dozen or so sampled, was the Kishore Winery Viognier vintage 2016.  While we all know and love the Viognier as it hails from France, Israel put its own spin on it with naturally more body, but flavors ranging from minerals to lemon, lime and green apple.  This was what I loved the most about Israeli wines- many varietals are familiar but the terroir of the country screams through and it's so very clear that these well loved grapes will soon be enjoyed in an entirely new way.  

To me, this is the greatest appreciation of home.  Allowing the terroir of the country be obvious- not cajoling the wine into being something its not, not mimicking the influence of a different country or area, but creating something beautiful from what you are given.  It's similar to bringing home your new partner for the first time and giving your family a list of instructions on how to behave, or allowing them to be their own zany selves.  Wine has to be able to be itself, stand on its own, and tell you its story- it has to be authentic.

So kudos to the winemakers of Israel, and to those of us heading home soon- are we brave enough to do the same?  After all, the authenticity of your home is what makes you love it, crave it, miss it and eventually drive you crazy- isn't that the basis of love?

No matter what "home" means to you, I hope you enjoy its warmth in the upcoming weeks!

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

To Renovate or Not To Renovate- That Is The Question

Whether you're actively house shopping or not- touring homes can be an incredibly fun activity.  Comparing designs and finishes, weighing the pros and cons of location, envisioning what life would be like if you lived there- it's an incredible opportunity to redesign your day to day.  As you get more serious about the possibility of a new home one of the biggest questions that faces buyers today is do we want a "new home" - one that's either new construction or has had a major renovation already done- or do we want a home we can fix up and customize?  

After a few years now of the market being on an upward swing, we're seeing a lot of options facing our buyers today from homes that have been "lovingly cared for", to moderate renovations, to "down to the studs" renovations, to entirely new buildings.  So the piece that buyers really need to consider is do they want to leave their mark on the property or are they excited to move in and just live?  

You guys may know that my fiancĂ© and I have gotten into doing major renovations on homes and reselling them.  We love being able to redesign a house from scratch, re imagining the space to today's standards where we crave open rooms and clear lines of sight through the house rather than separate rooms and a more closed off feel.  We can (and do) spend hours in tile stores finding complimentary shades and taking risks on new styles or colors.  We spend weeks debating kitchen appliance placement and what pieces of the original home should remain intact (I love me some fancywork).  Selling these homes is my greatest joy- watching the potential new buyers walk through, hearing their excitement (or dismay) in our choices, and observing them decide that this should be their home.  

When I'm working with new buyer clients its one of the first questions I ask them- what are you looking for?  Do you want a project or two or are you looking for "turn key"? Knowing this up front helps me to be a better resource in the search.  Renovated properties often come at a premium for the convenience so we may be looking for something with a little less square footage, or in a more up and coming neighborhood.  On the other hand, if you're looking for something you can put some work into, we can often use your budget to get something a bit larger, or closer to the action that has to be "discounted" in its price tag due to the work that needs to be done.  

Either option is solid and really depends on the preference of you, the buyer-and that is the best part.  Home buying should be all about choices and finding what is best for you and for your family- whether that choice is ALL of the decisions, or if its just a matter of neighborhood.  

Potential Impact of Covid-19?

As we sift through all of the data and information out there- I found this to be a helpful and interesting resource.  This was provided...