A recent survey of over 2,000 global executives showed that many expect the recovery to look like one of the scenarios shaded in blue below (A1–A4) which lead to a V- or U-shaped recovery. In each of these, the COVID-19 spread is eventually controlled, and catastrophic structural economic damage is avoided.
Almost one third of these leaders anticipate a muted world recovery where US GDP could drop 35-40% in Q2 of 2020 and won't return to pre-crisis levels until Q1 of 2023 (A1). A slightly more optimistic outlook was the second most anticipated scenario, reflecting
virus containment by mid-Q2 of 2020 with an economic rebound following Q2 2020 (A3). [Source: McKinsey
1. Commercial Aerospace
May take years to recover from production and supply chain shortages2. Consumer Air & Travel
Domestic recovery is likely to recover faster than international travel
Oil price decline driven by short-term demand impact and OPEC+ decision to increase supply
4. Insurance Carriers
Reduced interest rates and investment performance impacting returns
Trade tensions and declining sales amplified by acute decline in global demand"